St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies Recap
MLB · August 22, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — St. Louis Cardinals LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked St. Louis Cardinals at 39% against FanDuel's implied 37% — an edge of +6.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +1.8pp · closed at 2.43 (41.1%)
Solid 6.0% edge at FanDuel (2.70). Elo agrees (-66 gap).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Model performance on St. Louis Cardinals picks (60d)
How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.
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