San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox Recap
MLB · August 22, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — San Francisco Giants LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Francisco Giants at 35% against FanDuel's implied 35% — an edge of +7.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +7.3pp · closed at 2.84 (35.2%)
San Francisco Giants
Model
35%
Market
35%
Edge
+7.0 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
38.0%
—
Calibration offset
39.9%
+1.9pp
Platt rescale
38.6%
-1.3pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
37.3%
-1.3pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
35.2%
-2.1pp
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