Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks Recap
MLB · August 21, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Cincinnati Reds LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Cincinnati Reds at 44% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +6.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +9.6pp · closed at 2.37 (42.2%)
FADE GUARD: market moved 1.6pp against this side since publish
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Model performance on Cincinnati Reds picks (60d)
How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.