New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox Recap
MLB · August 21, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — New York Mets LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked New York Mets at 43% against FanDuel's implied 43% — an edge of +4.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +1.1pp · closed at 2.13 (46.9%)
New York Mets
Model
43%
Market
43%
Edge
+4.5 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
47.9%
—
+ Season record + form
46.2%
-1.7pp
Calibration offset
46.8%
+0.6pp
Platt rescale
43.5%
-3.3pp
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