Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros Recap
MLB · August 20, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Los Angeles Angels WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Los Angeles Angels at 38% against FanDuel's implied 36% — an edge of +5.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.3pp · closed at 2.66 (37.6%)
Los Angeles Angels
Model
38%
Market
36%
Edge
+5.6 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
39.0%
—
Calibration offset
41.1%
+2.1pp
Platt rescale
38.8%
-2.3pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
37.2%
-1.6pp
Final model probability
38.2%
+1.0pp
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