San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians Recap

MLB · August 20, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — San Francisco Giants LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Francisco Giants at 37% against FanDuel's implied 38% — an edge of +4.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +7.7pp · closed at 2.85 (35.1%)

Pass Dog play

San Francisco Giants

Model 37%

Market 38%

Edge +4.9 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

42.4% —

Calibration offset

43.6% +1.2pp

Platt rescale

40.9% -2.7pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

37.8% -3.1pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

37.2% -0.6pp

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