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Atlanta Braves @ Chicago White Sox Recap

MLB · August 20, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Atlanta Braves WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Atlanta Braves at 50% against FanDuel's implied 51% — an edge of +2.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +1.9pp  ·  closed at 1.97 (50.8%)

Small Play
Atlanta Braves
-102 on FanDuel
Model 50%
Market 51%
Edge +2.2 pts

Solid 2.2% edge at FanDuel (1.98).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
50.8%
+ Season record + form
52.6% +1.8pp
Platt rescale
47.4% -5.2pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
50.4% +3.0pp

Model performance on Atlanta Braves picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
41
W - L
18 - 23
Win rate
44%
Avg CLV
+3.8pt
ROI
-25.0%

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