Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays Recap

MLB · August 19, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Toronto Blue Jays LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Toronto Blue Jays at 36% against FanDuel's implied 36% — an edge of +6.3pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.5pp · closed at 2.77 (36.1%)

Pass Dog play

Toronto Blue Jays

Model 36%

Market 36%

Edge +6.3 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

41.6% —

+ Season record + form

40.4% -1.2pp

Calibration offset

42.0% +1.6pp

Platt rescale

40.3% -1.7pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

37.5% -2.8pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

35.5% -2.0pp

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