San Diego Padres @ New York Mets Recap

MLB · August 19, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — New York Mets WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked New York Mets at 45% against FanDuel's implied 46% — an edge of +3.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.1pp · closed at 2.25 (44.4%)

Pass Dog play

New York Mets

Model 45%

Market 46%

Edge +3.6 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

53.8% —

+ Season record + form

49.7% -4.1pp

Platt rescale

45.5% -4.2pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

44.9% -0.6pp

Final model probability

45.2% +0.4pp

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