San Diego Padres @ New York Mets Recap
MLB · August 19, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — New York Mets WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked New York Mets at 45% against FanDuel's implied 46% — an edge of +3.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.1pp · closed at 2.25 (44.4%)
FADE GUARD: market moved 1.6pp against this side since publish
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Model performance on New York Mets picks (60d)
How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.
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