Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies Recap

MLB · August 19, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Philadelphia Phillies WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Philadelphia Phillies at 37% against FanDuel's implied 38% — an edge of +4.3pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.4pp · closed at 2.49 (40.2%)

Small Play Dog play

Philadelphia Phillies

Model 37%

Market 38%

Edge +4.3 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Final model probability

37.3% —

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