Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates Recap
MLB · August 19, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Detroit Tigers LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Detroit Tigers at 41% against FanDuel's implied 41% — an edge of +4.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.2pp · closed at 2.38 (42.0%)
Detroit Tigers
Model
41%
Market
41%
Edge
+4.9 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
48.1%
—
+ Season record + form
49.1%
+1.0pp
Platt rescale
44.6%
-4.4pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
41.3%
-3.3pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
41.5%
+0.2pp
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