Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs Recap
MLB · August 18, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Chicago White Sox LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago White Sox at 52% against FanDuel's implied 42% — an edge of +4.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.7pp · closed at 2.53 (39.5%)
Chicago White Sox
Model
52%
Market
42%
Edge
+4.2 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
40.5%
—
+ Season record + form
42.2%
+1.7pp
+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)
42.7%
+0.5pp
Calibration offset
44.1%
+1.4pp
Platt rescale
41.3%
-2.8pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
51.8%
+10.5pp
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