Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers Recap

MLB · August 18, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Seattle Mariners LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Seattle Mariners at 40% against FanDuel's implied 39% — an edge of +5.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.4pp · closed at 2.52 (39.7%)

Small Play Dog play

Seattle Mariners

Model 40%

Market 39%

Edge +5.0 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

43.0% —

+ Season record + form

40.5% -2.5pp

Calibration offset

42.3% +1.8pp

Platt rescale

40.4% -1.9pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

39.1% -1.3pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

39.5% +0.4pp

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.