San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians Recap

MLB · August 18, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — San Francisco Giants LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Francisco Giants at 36% against FanDuel's implied 34% — an edge of +7.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.0pp · closed at 2.75 (36.4%)

Small Play Dog play

San Francisco Giants

Model 36%

Market 34%

Edge +7.5 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

43.2% —

Calibration offset

44.2% +1.0pp

Platt rescale

39.7% -4.5pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

35.8% -3.9pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

36.5% +0.7pp

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