Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates Recap
MLB · August 18, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Detroit Tigers LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Detroit Tigers at 43% against FanDuel's implied 42% — an edge of +5.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.5pp · closed at 2.40 (41.7%)
Detroit Tigers
Model
43%
Market
42%
Edge
+5.1 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
49.1%
—
+ Season record + form
49.7%
+0.6pp
Platt rescale
45.7%
-4.0pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
42.3%
-3.4pp
Final model probability
42.6%
+0.3pp
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