Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs Recap
MLB · August 17, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Chicago White Sox LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago White Sox at 41% against FanDuel's implied 41% — an edge of +4.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.2pp · closed at 2.40 (41.7%)
Chicago White Sox
Model
41%
Market
41%
Edge
+4.6 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
40.5%
—
+ Season record + form
42.2%
+1.7pp
Calibration offset
43.6%
+1.4pp
Platt rescale
41.0%
-2.6pp
Final model probability
41.5%
+0.5pp
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