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Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins Recap

MLB · August 18, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Minnesota Twins WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Minnesota Twins at 56% against FanDuel's implied 57% — an edge of +2.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.4pp  ·  closed at 1.79 (55.9%)

Small Play
Minnesota Twins
-133 on FanDuel
Model 56%
Market 57%
Edge +2.1 pts

Solid 2.1% edge at FanDuel (1.75).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Final model probability
55.6%

Model performance on Minnesota Twins picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
18
W - L
6 - 12
Win rate
33%
Avg CLV
+3.5pt
ROI
-46.9%

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