Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox Recap

MLB · August 18, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Arizona Diamondbacks LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Arizona Diamondbacks at 40% against FanDuel's implied 41% — an edge of +4.3pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.6pp · closed at 2.52 (39.7%)

Pass Dog play

Arizona Diamondbacks

Model 40%

Market 41%

Edge +4.3 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

39.6% —

+ Season record + form

43.1% +3.5pp

Calibration offset

44.2% +1.1pp

Platt rescale

41.2% -3.0pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

40.2% -1.1pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

40.2% —

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