Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays Recap
MLB · August 17, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Baltimore Orioles LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Baltimore Orioles at 40% against FanDuel's implied 40% — an edge of +4.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.3pp · closed at 2.46 (40.6%)
Baltimore Orioles
Model
40%
Market
40%
Edge
+4.6 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
42.9%
—
+ Season record + form
41.6%
-1.3pp
Calibration offset
43.1%
+1.5pp
Platt rescale
41.0%
-2.1pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
40.2%
-0.8pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
40.5%
+0.3pp
Final model probability
40.5%
-0.1pp
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