Washington Nationals @ New York Mets Recap
MLB · August 16, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Washington Nationals LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Washington Nationals at 40% against FanDuel's implied 41% — an edge of +6.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +7.0pp · closed at 2.46 (40.6%)
FADE GUARD: market moved 1.9pp against this side since publish
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Model performance on Washington Nationals picks (60d)
How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.
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