San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians Recap

MLB · August 16, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Cleveland Guardians LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Cleveland Guardians at 49% against FanDuel's implied 50% — an edge of +2.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.0pp · closed at 2.00 (50.0%)

Small Play Dog play

Cleveland Guardians

Model 49%

Market 50%

Edge +2.0 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

54.4% —

+ Season record + form

51.2% -3.2pp

Platt rescale

46.1% -5.1pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

47.1% +1.0pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

49.3% +2.2pp

Model performance on Cleveland Guardians picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

5 - 8

Win rate

38%

Avg CLV

+3.9pt

ROI

-42.7%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.