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New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays Recap

MLB · August 16, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — New York Yankees WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked New York Yankees at 48% against FanDuel's implied 48% — an edge of +7.3pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +7.7pp  ·  closed at 2.10 (47.6%)

Pass Dog play
New York Yankees
+108 on FanDuel
Model 48%
Market 48%
Edge +7.3 pts

FADE GUARD: market moved 1.8pp against this side since publish

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
52.3%
+ Season record + form
54.0% +1.7pp
Calibration offset
53.0% -1.0pp
Platt rescale
48.2% -4.8pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
50.0% +1.7pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
48.4% -1.6pp

Model performance on New York Yankees picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
23
W - L
15 - 7
Win rate
68%
Avg CLV
+5.3pt
ROI
+44.2%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.