Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels Recap
MLB · August 16, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Los Angeles Angels LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Los Angeles Angels at 48% against FanDuel's implied 48% — an edge of +3.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.4pp · closed at 2.07 (48.3%)
Los Angeles Angels
Model
48%
Market
48%
Edge
+3.6 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
52.5%
—
+ Season record + form
51.4%
-1.1pp
Platt rescale
45.7%
-5.7pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
47.8%
+2.1pp
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