Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros Recap
MLB · August 14, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Houston Astros WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Houston Astros at 36% against FanDuel's implied 37% — an edge of +4.3pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.3pp · closed at 2.72 (36.8%)
Houston Astros
Model
36%
Market
37%
Edge
+4.3 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Final model probability
35.6%
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