Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins Recap
MLB · August 15, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Minnesota Twins LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Minnesota Twins at 44% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +4.3pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.6pp · closed at 2.16 (46.3%)
Minnesota Twins
Model
44%
Market
45%
Edge
+4.3 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
51.1%
—
+ Season record + form
49.4%
-1.8pp
Platt rescale
44.9%
-4.5pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
44.1%
-0.8pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
43.8%
-0.4pp
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