New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays Recap
MLB · August 15, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Toronto Blue Jays WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Toronto Blue Jays at 40% against FanDuel's implied 39% — an edge of +5.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.9pp · closed at 2.66 (37.6%)
Toronto Blue Jays
Model
40%
Market
39%
Edge
+5.7 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
49.1%
—
+ Season record + form
46.6%
-2.5pp
Calibration offset
46.9%
+0.3pp
Platt rescale
42.9%
-4.0pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
39.0%
-3.9pp
Final model probability
39.6%
+0.6pp
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