Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers Recap
MLB · August 15, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Los Angeles Dodgers LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Los Angeles Dodgers at 47% against FanDuel's implied 47% — an edge of +3.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.7pp · closed at 2.11 (47.4%)
Los Angeles Dodgers
Model
47%
Market
47%
Edge
+3.9 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
56.6%
—
+ Season record + form
54.0%
-2.6pp
Calibration offset
52.9%
-1.1pp
Platt rescale
47.1%
-5.8pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
45.4%
-1.7pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
47.0%
+1.6pp
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