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Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers Recap

MLB · August 15, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Los Angeles Dodgers LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Los Angeles Dodgers at 47% against FanDuel's implied 47% — an edge of +3.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.7pp  ·  closed at 2.11 (47.4%)

Small Play Dog play
Los Angeles Dodgers
+112 on FanDuel
Model 47%
Market 47%
Edge +3.9 pts

Solid 3.9% edge at FanDuel (2.12).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
56.6%
+ Season record + form
54.0% -2.6pp
Calibration offset
52.9% -1.1pp
Platt rescale
47.1% -5.8pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
45.4% -1.7pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
47.0% +1.6pp

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