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Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants Recap

MLB · August 15, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Colorado Rockies WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Colorado Rockies at 40% against FanDuel's implied 40% — an edge of +6.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +8.2pp  ·  closed at 2.60 (38.5%)

Small Play Dog play
Colorado Rockies
+150 on FanDuel
Model 40%
Market 40%
Edge +6.7 pts

Solid 6.7% edge at FanDuel (2.50). Elo agrees (-41 gap).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
40.8%
+ Season record + form
43.5% +2.7pp
Calibration offset
44.5% +1.0pp
Platt rescale
41.2% -3.3pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
39.8% -1.4pp

Model performance on Colorado Rockies picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
33
W - L
8 - 25
Win rate
24%
Avg CLV
+5.1pt
ROI
-47.4%

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