Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels Recap
MLB · August 13, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Los Angeles Angels WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Los Angeles Angels at 42% against FanDuel's implied 42% — an edge of +4.3pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.6pp · closed at 2.32 (43.1%)
Los Angeles Angels
Model
42%
Market
42%
Edge
+4.3 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
46.7%
—
+ Season record + form
43.8%
-2.9pp
Calibration offset
44.9%
+1.1pp
Platt rescale
41.4%
-3.5pp
Final model probability
41.6%
+0.2pp
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