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Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers Recap

MLB · August 13, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Milwaukee Brewers WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Milwaukee Brewers at 44% against FanDuel's implied 44% — an edge of +6.3pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.5pp  ·  closed at 2.29 (43.7%)

Small Play Dog play
Milwaukee Brewers
+128 on FanDuel
Model 44%
Market 44%
Edge +6.3 pts

Solid 6.3% edge at FanDuel (2.28).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
47.1%
+ Season record + form
48.4% +1.3pp
Platt rescale
44.8% -3.6pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
44.2% -0.6pp

Model performance on Milwaukee Brewers picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
29
W - L
12 - 17
Win rate
41%
Avg CLV
+2.6pt
ROI
+4.7%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.