Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays Recap
MLB · August 14, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Baltimore Orioles WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Baltimore Orioles at 39% against FanDuel's implied 40% — an edge of +4.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.2pp · closed at 2.46 (40.6%)
Baltimore Orioles
Model
39%
Market
40%
Edge
+4.1 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
38.8%
—
+ Season record + form
38.0%
-0.8pp
Calibration offset
40.4%
+2.4pp
Platt rescale
38.7%
-1.7pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
38.1%
-0.6pp
Final model probability
39.4%
+1.3pp
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