Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers Recap
MLB · August 12, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Kansas City Royals LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Kansas City Royals at 35% against FanDuel's implied 36% — an edge of +5.8pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +8.7pp · closed at 3.00 (33.3%)
Kansas City Royals
Model
35%
Market
36%
Edge
+5.8 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
36.0%
—
+ Season record + form
34.6%
-1.4pp
Calibration offset
37.8%
+3.2pp
Platt rescale
36.3%
-1.5pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
35.3%
-1.0pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
34.7%
-0.6pp
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