Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays Recap

MLB · August 13, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Toronto Blue Jays LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Toronto Blue Jays at 41% against FanDuel's implied 41% — an edge of +6.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.0pp · closed at 2.25 (44.4%)

Small Play Dog play

Toronto Blue Jays

Model 41%

Market 41%

Edge +6.5 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

50.1% —

+ Season record + form

48.0% -2.1pp

Platt rescale

43.7% -4.3pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

41.7% -2.0pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

41.3% -0.4pp

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