Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants Recap
MLB · August 11, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — San Francisco Giants WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Francisco Giants at 37% against FanDuel's implied 37% — an edge of +7.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +7.7pp · closed at 2.73 (36.6%)
San Francisco Giants
Model
37%
Market
37%
Edge
+7.2 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
48.0%
—
+ Season record + form
45.4%
-2.6pp
Calibration offset
46.1%
+0.7pp
Platt rescale
41.1%
-5.0pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
38.0%
-3.1pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
37.1%
-0.9pp
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