Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels Recap

MLB · August 10, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Texas Rangers WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Texas Rangers at 49% against FanDuel's implied 50% — an edge of +2.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +1.4pp · closed at 1.96 (51.0%)

Small Play Dog play

Texas Rangers

Model 49%

Market 50%

Edge +2.4 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

53.3% —

+ Season record + form

56.2% +2.9pp

Calibration offset

54.5% -1.7pp

Platt rescale

45.6% -8.9pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

44.0% -1.6pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

48.7% +4.7pp

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