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Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels Recap

MLB · August 10, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Texas Rangers WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Texas Rangers at 49% against FanDuel's implied 50% — an edge of +2.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +1.4pp  ·  closed at 1.96 (51.0%)

Small Play Dog play
Texas Rangers
+100 on FanDuel
Model 49%
Market 50%
Edge +2.4 pts

Solid 2.4% edge at FanDuel (2.00). Elo agrees (+47 gap).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
53.3%
+ Season record + form
56.2% +2.9pp
Calibration offset
54.5% -1.7pp
Platt rescale
45.6% -8.9pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
44.0% -1.6pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
48.7% +4.7pp

Model performance on Texas Rangers picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
13
W - L
5 - 8
Win rate
38%
Avg CLV
+2.9pt
ROI
-17.9%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.