Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants Recap
MLB · August 10, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — San Francisco Giants LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Francisco Giants at 42% against FanDuel's implied 42% — an edge of +4.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.9pp · closed at 2.32 (43.1%)
San Francisco Giants
Model
42%
Market
42%
Edge
+4.4 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
49.6%
—
+ Season record + form
47.3%
-2.3pp
Calibration offset
48.0%
+0.7pp
Platt rescale
39.5%
-8.5pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
36.1%
-3.4pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
41.8%
+5.7pp
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