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Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks Recap

MLB · August 10, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Colorado Rockies LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Colorado Rockies at 39% against FanDuel's implied 40% — an edge of +5.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +9.6pp  ·  closed at 2.85 (35.1%)

Pass Dog play
Colorado Rockies
+152 on FanDuel
Model 39%
Market 40%
Edge +5.0 pts

FADE GUARD: market moved 2.1pp against this side since publish

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
39.2%
+ Season record + form
38.6% -0.7pp
Calibration offset
42.3% +3.7pp
Platt rescale
34.7% -7.6pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
35.3% +0.6pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
38.8% +3.5pp

Model performance on Colorado Rockies picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
33
W - L
8 - 25
Win rate
24%
Avg CLV
+5.1pt
ROI
-47.4%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.