Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays Recap
MLB · August 11, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Boston Red Sox LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Boston Red Sox at 45% against FanDuel's implied 44% — an edge of +7.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.7pp · closed at 2.17 (46.1%)
Boston Red Sox
+126 on FanDuel
Model
45%
Market
44%
Edge
+7.5 pts
Solid 7.5% edge at FanDuel (2.26).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
50.4%
—
+ Season record + form
52.6%
+2.2pp
Calibration offset
51.6%
-1.0pp
Platt rescale
43.5%
-8.1pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
43.0%
-0.5pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
44.6%
+1.7pp
Final model probability
44.6%
+0.1pp
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