Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays Recap
MLB · August 10, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Toronto Blue Jays WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Toronto Blue Jays at 41% against FanDuel's implied 41% — an edge of +6.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +7.3pp · closed at 2.49 (40.2%)
Toronto Blue Jays
Model
41%
Market
41%
Edge
+6.5 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
49.0%
—
+ Season record + form
46.7%
-2.3pp
Calibration offset
47.3%
+0.6pp
Platt rescale
40.2%
-7.1pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
38.6%
-1.6pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
41.3%
+2.7pp
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