Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies Recap
MLB · August 09, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Toronto Blue Jays LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Toronto Blue Jays at 36% against FanDuel's implied 36% — an edge of +5.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +9.8pp · closed at 3.13 (31.9%)
Toronto Blue Jays
Model
36%
Market
36%
Edge
+5.5 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
41.7%
—
Calibration offset
44.1%
+2.4pp
Platt rescale
36.8%
-7.3pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
34.3%
-2.5pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
36.2%
+1.9pp
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