Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers Recap

MLB · August 09, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Minnesota Twins LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Minnesota Twins at 32% against FanDuel's implied 33% — an edge of +7.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +11.8pp · closed at 3.43 (29.1%)

Pass Dog play

Minnesota Twins

Model 32%

Market 33%

Edge +7.6 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

38.8% —

+ Season record + form

38.1% -0.7pp

Calibration offset

41.7% +3.6pp

Platt rescale

34.2% -7.5pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

33.7% -0.6pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

32.1% -1.6pp

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