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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks Recap

MLB · August 08, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Arizona Diamondbacks LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Arizona Diamondbacks at 39% against FanDuel's implied 39% — an edge of +7.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +10.4pp  ·  closed at 2.76 (36.2%)

Pass Dog play
Arizona Diamondbacks
+158 on FanDuel
Model 39%
Market 39%
Edge +7.9 pts

FADE GUARD: market moved 1.7pp against this side since publish

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
47.4%
+ Season record + form
44.6% -2.8pp
Calibration offset
46.2% +1.6pp
Platt rescale
38.0% -8.2pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
36.3% -1.7pp
Final model probability
39.0% +2.7pp

Model performance on Arizona Diamondbacks picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
17
W - L
10 - 7
Win rate
59%
Avg CLV
+4.2pt
ROI
+70.8%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.