Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks Recap
MLB · August 08, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Arizona Diamondbacks LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Arizona Diamondbacks at 39% against FanDuel's implied 39% — an edge of +7.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +10.4pp · closed at 2.76 (36.2%)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Model
39%
Market
39%
Edge
+7.9 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
47.4%
—
+ Season record + form
44.6%
-2.8pp
Calibration offset
46.2%
+1.6pp
Platt rescale
38.0%
-8.2pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
36.3%
-1.7pp
Final model probability
39.0%
+2.7pp
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