Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals Recap

MLB · August 09, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Kansas City Royals LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Kansas City Royals at 51% against FanDuel's implied 52% — an edge of +5.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.8pp · closed at 1.96 (51.0%)

Small Play

Kansas City Royals

Model 51%

Market 52%

Edge +5.5 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Final model probability

51.2% —

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