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Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees Recap

MLB · August 09, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Atlanta Braves WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Atlanta Braves at 43% against FanDuel's implied 43% — an edge of +6.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.1pp  ·  closed at 2.26 (44.2%)

Small Play Dog play
Atlanta Braves
+134 on FanDuel
Model 43%
Market 43%
Edge +6.6 pts

Solid 6.6% edge at FanDuel (2.34).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
48.1%
+ Season record + form
49.8% +1.7pp
Platt rescale
40.7% -9.1pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
39.8% -0.9pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
42.6% +2.8pp

Model performance on Atlanta Braves picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
41
W - L
18 - 23
Win rate
44%
Avg CLV
+3.8pt
ROI
-25.0%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.