Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies Recap

MLB · August 07, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Toronto Blue Jays WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Toronto Blue Jays at 34% against FanDuel's implied 35% — an edge of +6.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.0pp · closed at 2.83 (35.3%)

Small Play Dog play

Toronto Blue Jays

Model 34%

Market 35%

Edge +6.4 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

41.7% —

Calibration offset

44.2% +2.5pp

Platt rescale

36.8% -7.4pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

33.9% -2.9pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

34.4% +0.5pp

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