Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks Recap
MLB · August 07, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Arizona Diamondbacks WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Arizona Diamondbacks at 40% against FanDuel's implied 41% — an edge of +6.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +7.9pp · closed at 2.54 (39.4%)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Model
40%
Market
41%
Edge
+6.7 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
47.4%
—
+ Season record + form
44.6%
-2.8pp
Calibration offset
46.2%
+1.6pp
Platt rescale
38.0%
-8.3pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
36.9%
-1.1pp
Final model probability
39.5%
+2.6pp
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