Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres Recap
MLB · August 07, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Houston Astros WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Houston Astros at 47% against FanDuel's implied 48% — an edge of +2.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: -0.2pp · closed at 2.00 (50.0%)
Houston Astros
Model
47%
Market
48%
Edge
+2.2 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
46.3%
—
+ Season record + form
47.4%
+1.1pp
Calibration offset
48.3%
+0.9pp
Platt rescale
39.6%
-8.7pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
40.2%
+0.6pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
46.5%
+6.3pp
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