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Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants Recap

MLB · August 07, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — San Francisco Giants WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Francisco Giants at 43% against FanDuel's implied 43% — an edge of +5.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.8pp  ·  closed at 2.29 (43.7%)

Small Play Dog play
San Francisco Giants
+130 on FanDuel
Model 43%
Market 43%
Edge +5.0 pts

Solid 5.0% edge at FanDuel (2.30).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
49.9%
+ Season record + form
47.7% -2.2pp
Calibration offset
48.4% +0.6pp
Platt rescale
39.7% -8.7pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
38.3% -1.4pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
42.9% +4.6pp

Model performance on San Francisco Giants picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
16
W - L
8 - 8
Win rate
50%
Avg CLV
+4.5pt
ROI
+0.3%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.