Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants Recap
MLB · August 07, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — San Francisco Giants WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Francisco Giants at 43% against FanDuel's implied 43% — an edge of +5.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.8pp · closed at 2.29 (43.7%)
San Francisco Giants
Model
43%
Market
43%
Edge
+5.0 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
49.9%
—
+ Season record + form
47.7%
-2.2pp
Calibration offset
48.4%
+0.6pp
Platt rescale
39.7%
-8.7pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
38.3%
-1.4pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
42.9%
+4.6pp
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