Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox Recap
MLB · August 08, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Chicago White Sox WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago White Sox at 44% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +4.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.3pp · closed at 2.14 (46.7%)
Chicago White Sox
Model
44%
Market
45%
Edge
+4.4 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
54.3%
—
+ Season record + form
53.4%
-0.9pp
Calibration offset
52.0%
-1.4pp
Platt rescale
42.0%
-10.0pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
39.5%
-2.5pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
44.5%
+5.0pp
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