Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals Recap
MLB · August 08, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Kansas City Royals WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Kansas City Royals at 41% against FanDuel's implied 41% — an edge of +4.8pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.0pp · closed at 2.36 (42.4%)
Kansas City Royals
Model
41%
Market
41%
Edge
+4.8 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
45.0%
—
+ Season record + form
41.8%
-3.2pp
Calibration offset
44.4%
+2.6pp
Platt rescale
36.2%
-8.2pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
35.5%
-0.7pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
40.8%
+5.3pp
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.